Li o artigo «The Truth About Aging Population» na versão impressa da revista HBR jan-fev 2014, mas está disponível online. Falta-lhe a força do papel, e a magnifica ilustração em que um bébé de fralda suporta sobre os seus ombros uma mulher idosa sentada num sofá. Como pode confirmar, começa assim o artigo:
It has become fashionable to issue dire projections of declining prosperity based
on demographic aging. But is that really such a problem?
There is no doubt that all the countries of the world
are getting older, but they are at very different stages of the process. The
median age in the United States—with half the population older and half
younger—is currently 36. In Ethiopia it’s 18, owing to a higher birthrate and a
lower life expectancy. In other African countries it’s even lower. The world’s
oldest country is Germany, where the median age is 45.
The pattern is very clear: The young countries are
poor, and the old countries are rich. So why do people fear population aging? I
see two reasons. The first is psychological: The analogy to individual aging
suggests that as populations get older, they grow frail and lose mental acuity.
The second comes from economists and an indicator called the dependency ratio, which assumes that every adult below age
65 contributes to society, and everybody above 65 is a burden. And the
proportion of people older than 65 is bound to increase. Continue a ler.
O autor é Wolfgang
Lutz, director fundador do The Wittgenstein Centre for Demography
and Global Human Capital (IIASA, VID/ÖAW, WU):
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